Big Yields, 20% Lower Prices: Why a Great Harvest Still Won't Save Your Farm Income
Ed Pridham finished his harvest early this fall. A farmer near Stayner, Ontario, and a director with the Ontario Soil and Crop Improvement Association, he got dry fields, no mud and strong corn yields.
By every farming measure, it was a great year. Then he did the math on prices.
He estimates grain prices have dropped about 20 per cent since September, according to a story from CTV News Barrie and CP24. A great harvest just met a smaller price tag.
The short answer: A big crop cannot protect your income when the market sets the price. The only part of your income where you set the price is what visitors pay you for experiences, tours and farm products. That is why smart farms are building a second income that does not depend on Chicago. |
A Perfect Harvest and a Price Drop You Cannot Fight
Here is what the Ontario story says. Soybean and corn harvests are finished. Mild, dry weather let farmers work without rain, mud or frost, and corn had extra time to mature.
Lisa Peterson, who runs Stone Horse Farm in Innisfil, called it one of the nicest falls the farm has seen in years. Her pigs have been rooting around the pasture outdoors.
The yields were expected. The Great Ontario Yield Tour forecast in August that Ontario could hit record averages of 206 bushels an acre for corn and 55 for soybeans. In early October, Grain Farmers of Ontario said soybean yields were good, even above average in many parts of southwestern Ontario.
But farmers are not celebrating. Prices fell while they harvested.
Grain Farmers of Ontario had December corn futures at $5.30 a bushel on September 11. By October 9 they were at $4.79. By November 6, Trading Economics reported corn futures below $4.40, a three-month low, as ample US supplies and sluggish export demand weighed on the market.
That is a drop of roughly 17 per cent in two months. Pridham's estimate of about 20 per cent is in the same neighbourhood.
Reality Check: Pridham's 20 per cent is one farmer's estimate, and cash prices also move with local basis and the Canadian dollar. Soybean futures held near $13 through early October, so your own crop mix matters. Check your own bids before you build a budget. |
The Math Nobody Prints on the Harvest Card
Here is the part that stings. If prices fall 20 per cent, a crop that is 20 per cent bigger does not make up the difference.
To earn the same money, you need a crop that is 25 per cent bigger. A bumper harvest of 10 per cent more bushels at a 20 per cent lower price still leaves you with 12 per cent less revenue.
Price drop | Bigger crop needed to earn the same |
|---|---|
10% | 11% |
15% | 18% |
20% | 25% |
25% | 33% |
30% | 43% |
No farm grows 43 per cent more because of good weather. You can do everything right and still earn less.
Costs Did Not Fall Because Prices Did
If your sales fall and your bills stay put, the squeeze is double.
Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada forecast that farm operating expenses rose 4.3 per cent in 2025, to $81.8 billion, leaving net cash income roughly flat at $19.6 billion. Statistics Canada reported that farm cash receipts passed $100 billion in 2025, but operating expenses grew faster than receipts.
Late last year, Grain Farmers of Ontario's model farm showed what fertilizer could do. Stocking up at the prices then on offer would cut an average corn grower's margin by nearly $48 an acre.
Ontario's grain magazine put the root problem plainly. Canadian grain and oilseed farmers are essentially price takers who follow Chicago futures.
You can grow better. You cannot negotiate with Chicago. Our report on a record crop that lost money on every bushel explains why farmers keep selling below cost.
It Is Not Only a Canadian Problem
South of the border the picture is similar. In its September forecast, USDA's Economic Research Service put 2026 US net farm income at $158.4 billion, down $4.3 billion, or 2.6 per cent, from 2025.
Direct government payments are forecast at $47.4 billion, up $19.5 billion. Production expenses are forecast to rise about $21 billion.
In plain words, rising costs are absorbing the extra money from crop sales and government payments. We covered the corn side of this in USDA's November corn numbers and the debt side in our report on record US farm debt.
Farmers on the other side of the world feel it too. Read how Australia's record barley harvest left so little profit and what falling world grain prices mean for diversifying.
The Same Mild Autumn Looks Very Different to a Visitor Farm
Here is the twist. The weather that was a gift for the combine is also the weather that visitor farms pray for.
Farms that sell fall experiences live and die by the weekend forecast. In Simcoe County alone, Chappell Farms near Barrie opened its Fall Festival on September 19, and Drysdale's Tree Farm in Egbert ran weekend Halloween events through October.
I could not find a published 2026 attendance count for Ontario farms, so I will not invent one. What the evidence does show is how much a good fall is worth.
A 2025 WHRO report from Virginia found that Cullipher Farm earns a third of its yearly income in a six-week pumpkin season. Bergey's Barnyard earns 30 per cent of its income in the fall. Joel Bergey said a sunny, mild season is far better than one with rainy weekends, and Mike Cullipher said a rainy weekend can hurt a farm badly.
The weather is the same for both farms. The difference is who sets the price. A bushel of corn sells at whatever the market pays. A family ticket sells at what you decide.
Where You Set the Price
Agritourism income is real, and the numbers are public. The 2022 US Census of Agriculture counted 28,617 farms earning from agritourism and recreation, bringing in about $1.26 billion. The average was $44,004 a farm, and income was up 12.4 per cent after inflation from 2017.
Reality Check: That $44,004 is an average across very different farms, not a promise. Some earn a few hundred dollars. Some earn far more. Read how much an agritourism farm can really make before you set a target. |
You do not need a big attraction. You need something visitors will pay for that you already have. Our guide to pricing your visitor experiences shows how one corn maze can cost $16 on a Monday and $38 on a Saturday.
Think of your farm as having two cash registers. One is rung up at the elevator, at a price you cannot change. The other is rung up at your own gate, where you choose what to sell and what to charge. A great harvest fills the first register at a lower price. A great fall weekend fills the second at the price you set.
Pick one idea and test it small. A pumpkin patch, a farm tour or a short hands-on class can start with what is already on your land. See how other farms use visitors to fill the gap when crop prices fall.
Field-Tested Play: The Price-Setter Test. This week, while you do your year-end budget, list every income line. Mark each one "market sets the price" or "I set the price." If nearly every line is the first kind, pick one experience you could sell next season. Price it by what the visitor gets, not by what your crop sells for. |
Three Moves to Make Before Your Budget Is Final
Prices have already moved, so act on what you can control.
Move No. 1: Run your numbers at today's price. Rebuild next year's grain income using the lower price, not September's. Do this before you sign for seed, fertilizer or equipment. If the budget only works at the old price, you have found the risk early.
Move No. 2: Find one slice you can price yourself. Look at what you already have: a barn, a field edge, a skill, a view, animals, a story. Pick the one visitors would pay to see or try. Small and simple beats big and fancy.
Move No. 3: Test it before you build it. Sell ten tickets, one workshop or one weekend. Learn what people pay and what they ask for. Then spend money. Our 14-section agritourism business plan template helps turn that test into a plan a lender can read.
Before You Open the Gate: Questions to Ask
This is general information, not legal advice. Before you charge visitors, get answers to these.
Does your township or county allow paying visitors on your land, and what permits are needed?
Does your farm insurance cover paying guests, or do you need separate liability cover?
If you sell food or drinks, which health rules apply?
How will visitor income be taxed? Ask your accountant, using these questions to ask about agritourism and taxes.
Our guides on what you need before your first paying visitor and writing a risk management plan walk through each one. If cash is tight, read about farm cash flow problems first.
Weather cuts both ways, too. One storm weekend cost one pumpkin farm £50,000, as this report explains. Have a rain plan.
What I Learned at Bloopy Durians
I founded Bloopy Durians in Bentong, Malaysia, and our durian seasons are short, about four to five months a year. Visitors come from all over the world for the farm tour, including Germany, Japan, Russia, Australia, the UK, Canada, America and China. Many companies send their staff and management too. That income does not depend on a commodity price.
We also keep a WhatsApp list of loyal customers who buy durians whenever they are available. It is a reliable source of income because those customers come back.
The lesson is simple. Build income where you can set the price and where customers come back.
Frequently Asked Questions
Why do farm incomes fall when yields are high?
When many farms harvest big crops, supply rises and prices fall. Your income is yield multiplied by price, so a lower price can cancel a bigger crop.
How much does a 20 per cent price drop hurt?
You would need a crop 25 per cent bigger to earn the same money. A 10 per cent bigger crop still leaves you with 12 per cent less revenue.
Can agritourism replace grain income?
For most farms, no, and it does not need to. The goal is a second income line where you set the price, which makes your whole farm less exposed to the market.
How much can an agritourism farm earn?
In the 2022 US census, farms with agritourism income averaged $44,004. Results vary widely by farm, location and what you offer.
When will the next official Canadian farm income numbers come out?
Statistics Canada said it will release January to September 2026 farm cash receipts, along with revised 2025 net farm income estimates, on November 24, 2026.
Find Out If Your Farm Is Ready for a Second Income
The Farm Readiness Quiz takes a few minutes. It shows where your farm is strong, what is missing, and what to do first.
Want ideas to start with? The free ebook gives you 150 ways to earn from your farm, so you can find one that fits your land, your skills and your budget.
P.S. Ed Pridham did everything right at harvest. The question for your farm is what you will do about the part the harvest cannot fix.
Stephen Loke of AgritourismSuccess.com, whose farm is featured in Bloomberg News and Asahi Shimbun. This article is general information, not legal, tax, insurance or financial advice. Check rules and prices with your own advisers.
Sources
CTV News Barrie / CP24, "Rare November warmth offers Ontario farmers a welcome break" (Julianna Balsamo, Nov 6, 2026): cp24.com
Farms.com, "2026 Great Ontario Yield Tour forecasts a new record high in corn and soybean yields" (Aug 27, 2026): farms.com
Grain Farmers of Ontario, Market Trends Reports, September and October 2026: Sept report, Oct report
Trading Economics, "Corn Holds at 3-Month Low" (Nov 6, 2026): tradingeconomics.com
Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada, Farm Income Forecast for 2025-2026 and question period note: AAFC forecast, Question Period Note
Statistics Canada, "Farm income, 2025" (May 27, 2026) and release schedule note: Farm income, 2025, Release schedule
Western Producer, "Canadian farm cash receipts surpass $100 billion": producer.com
Ontario Grain Farmer, December 2025 / January 2026: price takers, fertilizer margin
USDA Economic Research Service, Farm Sector Income Forecast and September 3, 2026 webinar transcript: farms.com summary, ERS transcript
Tourism Barrie, Fall and Halloween events 2026, and Ontario Culinary, "30 Pumpkin Picking Spots to Visit in Ontario this Fall": tourismbarrie.com, ontarioculinary.com
WHRO Public Media, "The autumn economy" (Oct 22, 2025): whro.org
USDA ERS, 2022 Census of Agriculture agritourism chart, and NERCRD data brief: ERS, NERCRD brief, average receipts
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