USDA Just Cut the Corn Crop and Corn Is Still Worth Less Than Your Insurance Price. Here's the Income No Crop Report Can Touch
Kaylee Heap helps run Heap's Giant Pumpkin Farm in Minooka, Illinois. The farm grows commodity corn and soybeans, often for export.
In the fall, families also pay to pick pumpkins, ride hayrides and walk a corn maze. After corn and soy prices sank to four-year lows in 2024, she told Reuters: "If we just focused on row crops, we'd be having a different conversation."
This week's November 2026 WASDE shows why. USDA cut the corn crop, yet its price forecast fell to $4.60 a bushel, below the $4.75 insurance harvest price and most break-evens. The income you still control is what visitors pay, at prices you set.
The Short Answer: The November 2026 WASDE cut US corn yield to 179.6 bushels an acre and ending stocks to 1.758 billion bushels. USDA still lowered its season-average corn price to $4.60. University budgets put corn break-even prices at about $4.70 to $5.34 a bushel. Waiting for the next report is not a plan. Visitor income, like a corn maze or harvest day, is priced by you, not by USDA. |
What the November 2026 WASDE Actually Said
The report came out on Tuesday, November 10, 2026. It surprised the trade: USDA cut corn and soybean stocks more than analysts expected.
Here are the numbers that matter for your 2027 budget.
Item | October WASDE | November WASDE | Trade guess (average) |
|---|---|---|---|
Corn yield (bu/acre) | 181.2 | 179.6 | 180.5 |
Corn production (billion bu) | 16.034 | 15.893 | 15.944 |
Corn ending stocks (billion bu) | 1.849 | 1.758 | 1.826 |
Corn season-average price | $4.70 | $4.60 | n/a |
Soybean yield (bu/acre) | 53.1 | 53.3 (record) | 53.6 |
Soybean ending stocks (million bu) | 315 | 300 | 336 |
Soybean season-average price | $12.00 | $12.10 | n/a |
Corn exports and feed use were each cut by 25 million bushels. Ethanol use stayed at 5.65 billion bushels.
Harvest was 81% done on November 8, behind the 86% average. Iowa was only 72% done against an 89% average.
USDA cut 141 million bushels of corn, and the price forecast still went down 10 cents. Most WASDE headlines skip that part.
Why $4.60 Corn Still Hurts
A price only means something next to your cost.
The University of Illinois farmdoc team said in January 2026 that break-even prices to cover all costs, land included, sit in the $4.70 to $4.90 range for corn, before government support. Purdue's February 2026 budgets put the break-even on average Indiana soil at $5.34.
Those are forecasts, and your farm will differ. But at $4.60, many corn acres are 10 to 74 cents short on every bushel.
Here is simple example math. If you grow 200 bushels an acre and miss break-even by 20 cents, you lose $40 an acre. On 500 acres, that is $20,000 gone.
December corn futures closed at $4.395 on Monday, November 9, the day before the report. That is even lower than USDA's $4.60.
There is another warning sign. USDA's September forecast put 2026 government payments at $47.4 billion and net farm income at $158.4 billion. By my math, that is close to 30 cents of every dollar of US net farm income coming from Washington.
A farm that needs a federal check to break even has handed its future to someone else. More on that in why farmers keep selling below cost of production.
The $4.75 Insurance Price Is Not a Check in Your Mailbox
Many farmers saw "$4.75 harvest price" and felt better. Here is what it really does.
For revenue protection, your projected price is the average of December corn futures during February. For 2026, it was $4.62.
Your harvest price is the average of December corn futures during October. For 2026, it was $4.75, 13 cents higher.
When the harvest price is higher, your revenue guarantee uses the higher price. But farmdoc points out that with a harvest price above the projected price, you need a yield loss before revenue protection pays.
So if you grew a normal crop, you may get no payment. And you still sell your corn at the market price, which is lower than $4.75 today.
Soybean growers face the same gap. USDA's $12.10 price is below the $12.63 soybean harvest price.
The insurance price protects you from disaster. It does not set what a buyer pays you.
What Every WASDE Report Leaves Out
A WASDE report counts bushels in the whole world. It can't count the family who drives out to walk your corn maze.
Your grain price is set by markets you can't control. Your visitor price is set by you.
The 2022 Census of Agriculture counted 28,617 US farms with agritourism and recreation income. Together they took in $1.26 billion, an average of $44,004 per farm.
USDA's Economic Research Service says that total grew 12.4% from 2017, after inflation.
I covered real examples in 10 farms that turned losing acres into visitor money and in why farms are turning to agritourism as crop prices fall.
The Corn Maze Math: One Acre of Grain vs a Season of Tickets
Boots Farms near Moberly, Missouri, grows corn and soybeans. In 2023 the family added a corn maze, a jump pad and a slide. Melissa Boots says it has "provided another source of revenue for the farm."
Their maze covers 6 acres, plus a 1-acre maze for little kids. Yet the family says creating the maze takes away only about an acre of corn from the harvest.
They charge $10 admission for the maze and other activities. They estimate upwards of 1,000 families visit each year, and many come back.
Now let's run the example math with this week's numbers.
Line | Example number | How it was worked out |
|---|---|---|
Grain value of 1 acre of corn | $826 | 179.6 bu (US average yield) x $4.60 (USDA price) |
$10 tickets needed to replace that acre | 83 | $826 / $10 |
Visitors at Boots Farms | 1,000+ families a year | Farm's own estimate |
Admission floor if each family bought just one ticket | $10,000+ | 1,000 x $10 |
Average agritourism income per US farm offering it (2022) | $44,004 | 2022 Census of Agriculture |
This is gross money, not profit. You still pay for design, cutting, staff, insurance and marketing. But 83 tickets is a small hill next to what that acre earns at $4.60.
In Utah, Rex Larsen plowed under alfalfa for his Glen Ray Corn Maze. He told KUER it is "financially better than just growing corn."
For the full how-to, read how to start a corn maze and what it costs to start an agritourism business.
Field-Tested Play: Pick one acre near the road and one weekend next October. Plan a simple harvest day: a small maze, a hayride and a pumpkin pile. Set your ticket price before you plant, not after the WASDE comes out. Use the agritourism pricing guide to price weekdays and weekends differently, and see how to organize a fall harvest festival for the day plan. If rides fit your farm, the hayride business guide shows real prices. |
Reality Check: Visitor income is a slice, not a rescue. At Riehm Produce Farm in Ohio and at the Larsen farm in Utah, visitor attractions bring in about 10% of total income. An older (2008) University of Georgia budget for a farm entertainment business put marketing and advertising at $14,880 of about $35,000 in yearly costs, its biggest cost category. In that same budget, the break-even entry price fell from about $35 at 1,000 visitors to $7 at 5,000. Volume and marketing decide whether a maze pays. |
Insurance and Legal Questions to Ask Before You Open the Gate
This is not legal or insurance advice. These are the questions to take to your own agent and lawyer.
No. 1: Does my farm policy cover paying visitors? A farm policy may be written for farming, not for hosting the public. Tell your carrier exactly which activities you plan to offer.
No. 2: Does my state have an agritourism liability law, and what does it require? Many states do. Ohio State's agricultural law program found most of these laws require posted warning signs, often with set wording. A Farm Credit East legal review found that in several Northeast states, including Connecticut, Maine and Vermont, these laws do not protect a host who acts negligently. It calls them an extra layer of protection, not a replacement for insurance. See my agritourism laws by state guide.
No. 3: Do I need a separate agritourism or event policy? Compare quotes using my guide to agritourism insurance coverage.
No. 4: Does adding visitor income change anything on my crop insurance, loans or farm programs? Ask your crop insurance agent and lender in writing before you sign up for 2027.
Why I Price the Visit, Not the Fruit
I am the founder of Bloopy Durians in Bentong, Malaysia. Our durian seasons are short, roughly December to February and June to August, and I can't set the market price of fruit.
But I set the price of our farm tour. It runs about 1.5 hours, with a four-wheel-drive ride, durian tasting, and guests opening a durian themselves.
We welcome visitors from all over the world, and many companies send their staff and management. A WhatsApp list of loyal customers buys durians every season. That is income no crop report can touch.
Your 2027 Budget: A Plan That Doesn't Wait for USDA
Next month brings another WASDE, then another. Here is a better plan for this winter:
Know your break-even. Put your own cost per bushel next to $4.60.
Find your visitor acre. Pick ground near a road with parking space.
Price the experience first. Write down a ticket price you control.
Check funding. Read whether the Value-Added Producer Grant can help with what visitors take home.
Spread the risk. See why one-commodity farms carry so much risk.
FAQ
What did the November 2026 WASDE say about corn?
USDA cut the corn yield to 179.6 bushels an acre and production to 15.893 billion bushels. Ending stocks fell 91 million bushels to 1.758 billion. The season-average farm price forecast dropped 10 cents to $4.60.
Is $4.60 corn profitable in 2026?
For many farms, no. farmdoc's January 2026 budgets put the all-cost break-even at $4.70 to $4.90 for Illinois corn, and Purdue put it at $5.34 on average Indiana soil. These are forecasts, so check your own costs.
What is the 2026 crop insurance harvest price for corn?
It is $4.75 a bushel, the October average of December corn futures. The projected price set in February was $4.62.
Can a corn maze earn more than corn on the same acre?
It can. Boots Farms in Missouri says its maze takes about one acre of corn out of the harvest. At this week's USDA numbers, that acre is worth about $826, or 83 tickets at $10. Costs and marketing still decide your profit.
Will visitors affect my farm insurance?
They can. A farm policy may not be written for paying guests. Tell your agent every activity you plan, ask about your state's agritourism law, and get answers in writing before you open.
Find Out If Your Farm Is Ready for Visitors
Take the free Farm Readiness Quiz. In a few minutes you'll see which visitor ideas fit your land, your time and your budget.
Get 150 Ways to Earn More From the Farm You Already Have
My free ebook, 150 Ways to Unlock Hidden Wealth From Your Farm, gives you 150 ways to earn more from the land and equipment you already own, so your year doesn't ride on one crop report. The ideas are sorted into categories, so you can quickly spot the ones that fit your farm. For each idea you'll see how hard it is, a way to set the price and what it could earn.
P.S. Kaylee Heap's family still grows corn and soybeans. The difference is the visitor side of their farm doesn't depend on a USDA number. Next fall, when the next WASDE drops, which conversation will your farm be having?
Written by Stephen Loke of AgritourismSuccess.com, whose farm is featured in Bloomberg News and Asahi Shimbun. This article is general information, not financial, legal or insurance advice.
Sources
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RFD-TV, "WASDE Recap: USDA Raises Grain Supplies As Futures Fall Sharply" (Oct 9, 2026): https://www.rfdtv.com/wasde-recap-usda-raises-grain-supplies-as-futures-fall-sharply
farmdoc daily, "Revised Illinois Crop Budgets for 2026" (Jan 13, 2026): https://farmdocdaily.illinois.edu/2026/01/revised-illinois-crop-budgets-for-2026.html
Purdue Center for Commercial Agriculture, "What 2026 Crop Budgets Mean for Profitability and Cash Rent Decisions" (Feb 11, 2026): https://ag.purdue.edu/commercialag/home/resource/2026/02/what-2026-crop-budgets-mean
farmdoc daily, "Projected Prices and Volatility Factors for 2026" (Mar 3, 2026): https://farmdocdaily.illinois.edu/2026/03/projected-prices-and-volatility-factors-for-2026.html
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American Farm Bureau Federation, "USDA Revises Farm Income Higher, but Costs Still Bite" (Sep 3, 2026): https://www.fb.org/intel/markets/usda-revises-farm-income-higher-but-costs-still-bite
Reuters via Insurance Journal, "Farmers Turn to Airbnb, Corn Mazes to Outlast Agricultural Downturn" (Feb 24, 2025): https://www.insurancejournal.com/magazines/mag-features/2025/02/24/812824.htm
Illinois Farm Bureau Partners, "Heap's Pumpkin Farm" (2015): https://ilfbpartners.com/?p=13844
KCUR / Columbia Missourian, "This Missouri farm's corn maze boosts business — and is designed by a Lee's Summit company" (Oct 25, 2025): https://www.kcur.org/environment-agriculture/2025-10-25/corn-mazes-keep-family-farms-running
KUER, "Why some Utah farmers are turning fields into tourist attractions" (Apr 7, 2026): https://www.kuer.org/business-economy/2026-04-07/why-some-utah-farmers-are-turning-fields-into-tourist-attractions
Midstory via WYSU, "In Ohio, corn mazes are serious business" (Oct 22, 2025): https://wysu.org/2025-10-22/in-ohio-corn-mazes-are-serious-business
NERCRD / Penn State, "Agritourism and Recreational Services on US Farms: Data from the 2022 Census of Agriculture" (2024): https://nercrd.psu.edu/wp-content/uploads/2024/05/AgritourismDataBrief.May2024.pdf
USDA Economic Research Service, "2022 Census of Agriculture: The majority of U.S. counties generate some agritourism income" (Dec 5, 2024): https://ers.usda.gov/data-products/charts-of-note/110552
University of Georgia CAED, "Evaluating the Financial Potential of an Entertainment Farming/Farm Tourism Business" (May 2008): https://openscholar.uga.edu/record/24819/files/CR-08-11.pdf
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