Record Barley Harvest, Zero Celebration: Why Australia's Record Mallee Yields Leave So Little Profit (and What Smart Farmers Grow Instead)
Out in Victoria's Mallee, near the tiny town of Patchewollock, farmer Simon Grigg is watching barley crops run at about 5 tonnes a hectare. He told Farm Online it is a record for that part of the world.
So why is nobody celebrating?
Because the costs came in at a record too. Barley sells for as little as A$220 a tonne at Mallee sites, and growers spent about A$800 to A$900 a hectare to grow it. That puts break-even near 4 tonnes a hectare.
The Short Answer: A record barley harvest does not mean a record income. At A$220 a tonne and A$800 to A$900 a hectare in costs, a 5 t/ha crop leaves about A$200 to A$300 a hectare. Grain income depends on yield, price and costs you can't control. Visitor income (tours, mazes, farm stays, a farm-to-pint brewery) depends on bookings and a ticket price you set. |
Victorian Farmers Federation grains group president Ryan Milgate put it plainly: at today's prices, "you need 4t/ha just before you get into the black."
If you farm grain in Iowa, Saskatchewan or Lincolnshire, this is your story too.
The Mallee Maths: Why a Record Crop Pays So Little
The break-even sum is simple. Divide your cost per hectare by the price per tonne. That gives the yield you need just to stand still.
Cost per hectare | Price per tonne | Break-even yield | Sales at 5 t/ha | Profit at 5 t/ha |
|---|---|---|---|---|
A$800 | A$220 (Mallee site) | 3.6 t/ha | A$1,100 | A$300 |
A$900 | A$220 (Mallee site) | 4.1 t/ha | A$1,100 | A$200 |
A$800 | A$260 (Victorian port) | 3.1 t/ha | A$1,300 | A$500 |
A$900 | A$260 (Victorian port) | 3.5 t/ha | A$1,300 | A$400 |
The best barley crop that district has seen leaves A$200 to A$300 a hectare at the Mallee site price. One frost or dry spring, and that cushion is gone.
For US readers, roughly (at US$0.6924 per Australian dollar, 10 November 2026, and a 48 lb bushel): A$220 a tonne is about US$3.32 a bushel, costs run about US$224 to US$252 an acre, and the 4 t/ha break-even is about 74 bushels an acre.
Grigg summed up the trap: fuel and fertiliser cost more, so growers needed a big crop just to cover the bills.
Reality Check: Big crops can make next year dearer too. Milgate warned that high-yielding crops remove a lot of nutrients from the soil, which could mean higher fertiliser bills next season. A record year can borrow from the next one. |
Why a Bigger Harvest Pushes the Price Down
When everyone grows more, the price falls. The USDA expects Australia to harvest a second record barley crop in a row: 17.7 million tonnes, about 700,000 tonnes more than last year's record.
Analysts quoted by Farm Online see little to lift prices. Andrew Whitelaw of Episode 3 said China is buying, but only at a low price. Lloyd George of AgScientia expects a price floor but no big rise.
It's the bind I wrote about in They Grew a Record Crop and Lost Money on Every Bushel. You can't out-yield a falling price forever, and as rising farm input costs climb, your break-even yield climbs with them.
The Same Squeeze Is Hitting the US, Canada and the UK
The Mallee isn't alone.
United States. The American Farm Bureau Federation, working from USDA data, projects wheat growers will lose about US$114 an acre over total costs in 2026, widening to US$145 in 2027. It lists barley among the crops projected to stay below breakeven.
Canada. Farm Credit Canada's 2026 crop outlook says profit projections for nearly all grain, oilseed and pulse crops across Canada are below break-even. FCC forecasts Alberta feed barley at C$240 a tonne for 2026-27, against a five-year average of C$295. That is about 19% lower, and FCC expects crop input costs to stay high.
United Kingdom. In August 2025, AHDB forecast the full cost of growing feed winter wheat for harvest 2026 at £1,659 a hectare, including rent and labour. With feed wheat at about £196 a tonne ex-farm in mid-October, you'd need about 8.5 t/ha to cover that. Defra's provisional figures put England's 2026 wheat average at 7.2 t/ha. Defra already estimated average cereal farm income in England fell about two-thirds, to £17,000, in the year to February 2026.
Different crops, same lesson: when costs rise faster than prices, a good harvest can still leave you standing still. See why betting the farm on one commodity is so risky.
The Fix: Sell Something That Doesn't Depend on Yield or the Grain Price
You can't control the rain, the world price or diesel. You can control what you sell to people who visit your farm.
A visitor who pays for a tour pays the same whether your barley yields 3 tonnes or 5. Here are real farms that show how it works, and one that shows what happens when crowds come for free.
A Yorkshire Barley Farm That Turned Its Grain Into Beer
Tom and Gill Mellor farmed malting barley on the Yorkshire Wolds. In 2009 Tom told Farmers Weekly: "In 2003, when barley was £100/t, things were difficult."
So in 2003 they started Wold Top Brewery, brewing with malting barley grown on the farm. Today the brewery sits on the family's 600-acre farm, run by the next generation, and offers public brewery tours at £15 a person.
Now compare. At the RBA's rate of £0.5149 per Australian dollar (10 November 2026), the A$300 profit from a record hectare of Mallee barley is about £154. That is roughly ten Wold Top tour tickets. For more on the farm-to-pint model, read the Tilted Barn brewery case study.
An Ohio Corn and Hay Farm Where the Maze Now Earns the Profit
Derthick's Farm, about 40 minutes southeast of Cleveland, grows about 40 acres of hay and corn. Manager MaryEllen Hamlin told Marketplace in September 2026 that the corn earns little when sold after the season.
The farm has run a 17-acre corn maze since the late 2000s, and today it also offers a zip line, slides and farm animals. Hamlin says nearly all their profit now comes from agritourism. If you grow corn, start with how to start a corn maze.
Reality Check: Popular isn't the same as paid. Grinter Farms, a Kansas grain farm, has drawn thousands of guests to its sunflower fields over the years, with free entry and a $1 honor-system donation if you take a flower head home. In 2016, the crowds, plus Labor Day traffic and roadworks, backed up the highway, and the farm closed for the day on the sheriff's advice. The Grinters choose to stay free, and their sunflowers are sold as birdseed. But if people are already coming to your farm, ask whether a fair ticket would cover your costs and risks. My agritourism pricing guide shows how. |
The Mallee Already Pulls Tourists
Patchewollock, where Simon Grigg farms, sits at the northern end of Victoria's Silo Art Trail, with a local's portrait painted on the grain silos.
In 2018 the RACV reported silo-trail visitors had lifted trade at the town pub, whose six rooms were often fully booked. People will travel a long way to see grain country. Give them a reason to stop and pay.
7 Visitor Ideas That Suit a Grain or Barley Farm
A grain farm already has what town people can't see: big skies, big machines and the story of their bread and beer.
No. 1: Harvest-day viewing tours. Let visitors watch the header work from a safe, fenced viewing spot, then hold grain fresh from the bin. A ride in a working header or combine is a serious safety risk, so never offer one without your insurer's written approval.
No. 2: Grain to glass or grain to bread. Partner with a local brewer, maltster or baker. Visitors walk the barley, then taste what it becomes.
No. 3: A sunflower or grain field for photos. A strip of sunflowers beside the road can bring photographers and families. Sell timed tickets, not an honor box. See how to start a U-pick flower field.
No. 4: A maze. Corn is the classic, but sunflowers work too.
No. 5: A farm stay. Grain country has quiet, dark skies and space. Start with how to start a farm stay.
No. 6: School visits. Teachers want children to see where food comes from. Here's what schools happily pay for.
No. 7: A guided farm tour. One hour, one story, one tasting. Here's how to build a farm tour business people book.
Field-Tested Play: Pick ONE idea that uses land or skills you already have. Price it before you build it, sell a small first season ahead of time, and only expand when bookings prove demand. For startup numbers, see how much it costs to start an agritourism business. |
For more, see my farm diversification ideas and 10 real farms that filled the gap when crop prices fell.
Questions to Ask Before Your First Paying Visitor
This is not legal or insurance advice, just questions to take to the right people before you open the gate.
Ask your insurer:
Does my farm policy cover paying visitors, or do I need separate agritourism or public liability cover?
What activities are excluded? Machinery rides, hayrides, harvest viewing, mazes?
Ask your council, county or planning office:
Do I need planning permission, a permit or a change of use for tours, events or a farm stay?
Are there rules on parking, toilets, road access, signs and food?
Ask your lawyer:
Does my state, province or country have an agritourism liability law, and what signs or waivers does it require?
Should the visitor business sit in a separate legal entity?
Before those meetings, read what agritourism insurance coverage you need, whether liability waivers protect your farm and the hidden farm hazards your visitors can't see.
Reality Check: Augers, silos, bins, moving machines and stored grain are dangers visitors don't understand. Keep visitors well away from them, and let your insurer guide where they can go. |
What a Durian Farm Taught Me About Crops That Only Pay in Season
I'm Stephen Loke, founder of Bloopy Durians in Bentong, Malaysia. Durians are not barley, but the trap is the same.
Durian seasons are short, about four to five months a year in total, falling within December to February and June to August. Fruit income alone is seasonal and depends on the market price.
So we built something with a price we set ourselves: a paid farm tour of about 1.5 hours.
Guests ride a four-wheel-drive, plant a durian tree, see durians hanging on the trees, taste them, learn to tell a good durian, and open one themselves.
We welcome visitors from all over the world, and many companies send their staff and management. A WhatsApp list of loyal customers buys our durians every season. The farm has been featured in Bloomberg News and Asahi Shimbun.
The lesson for a grain grower is simple. Your crop is the stage. The experience is the product.
Frequently Asked Questions
Why are farmers not making money from a record barley harvest?
Because costs rose faster than prices. With costs of A$800 to A$900 a hectare and barley as low as A$220 a tonne, break-even is near 4 t/ha, so a record 5 t/ha leaves only about A$200 to A$300 a hectare.
What is a break-even yield and how do I work it out?
It's the yield you need just to cover costs. Divide cost per hectare (or acre) by price per tonne (or bushel). At A$900 and A$220, that's about 4.1 t/ha.
What are barley prices doing in 2026?
In Victoria, barley was around A$260 a tonne at port and as low as A$220 at Mallee sites in November 2026. In Canada, FCC's January 2026 outlook forecast Alberta feed barley at C$240 a tonne for 2026-27, below its five-year average of C$295. In England, ex-farm feed barley was about £183 a tonne in mid-October 2026.
Is the US grain squeeze as bad as Australia's?
AFBF projects, from USDA data, that wheat growers lose about US$114 an acre over total costs in 2026, with barley also below breakeven. These are national forecasts; your farm may differ.
What visitor income suits a grain farm?
Harvest viewing tours, grain-to-glass experiences, sunflower photo fields, mazes, farm stays, school visits and guided tours. Pick one that uses what you already have.
Do I need special insurance to have visitors on my grain farm?
Ask your insurer whether your farm policy covers paying visitors and which activities are excluded, and ask a lawyer about your local agritourism liability law.
Find Out If Your Farm Is Ready for Visitor Income
You've seen the maths. The question now is which visitor idea fits your land, your time and your money.
The free Farm Readiness Quiz takes a few minutes and helps you see where your farm stands and what to do first.
Want more ideas? My free ebook, 150 Ways to Unlock Hidden Wealth From Your Farm, gives you 150 ways to earn more from the land, buildings and skills you already have, including plenty that don't depend on the grain price.
P.S. Simon Grigg's district is growing record barley, and at today's prices the costs still swallow most of the money. Next harvest, you could have something the weather and the world price can't touch: paying visitors. Take the quiz above and find your first step.
Written by Stephen Loke of AgritourismSuccess.com, whose farm is featured in Bloomberg News and Asahi Shimbun. This article is general information, not financial, legal or insurance advice.
Sources
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Exchange rates (USD and GBP per AUD, 10 November 2026), Reserve Bank of Australia. https://www.rba.gov.au/statistics/frequency/exchange-rates.html
"Persistent Losses Leave Farmers Needing Economic Support", Faith Parum and Daniel Munch, American Farm Bureau Federation Market Intel, 16 July 2026. https://www.fb.org/intel/markets/persistent-losses-leave-farmers-needing-economic-support
"2026 Crop outlook: Export momentum key to prices given abundant supplies", Leigh Anderson, Farm Credit Canada, 21 January 2026. https://www.fcc-fac.ca/en/knowledge/2026-crop-outlook
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"English barley harvest falls to 14-year low as wheat edges higher", Melanie Jenkins, Farmers Weekly, 15 October 2026. https://www.fwi.co.uk/business/markets-and-trends/crop-prices/english-barley-harvest-falls-to-14-year-low-as-wheat-edges-higher
"New income data confirms squeeze on cereal farms", Philip Case, Farmers Weekly, 13 March 2026. https://www.fwi.co.uk/business/new-income-data-confirms-squeeze-on-cereal-farms
"FW Awards 2009: Diversification Farmer of the Year finalist – Tom Mellor", Caroline Stocks, Farmers Weekly, 31 July 2009. https://www.fwi.co.uk/business/fw-awards-2009-diversification-farmer-of-the-year-finalist-tom-mellor
"About Us", Wold Top Brewery, accessed 11 November 2026. https://www.woldtopbrewery.co.uk/pages/about-us
"Brewery Tours", Wold Top Brewery, accessed 11 November 2026. https://www.woldtopbrewery.co.uk/pages/brewery-tours
"Corn mazes, apple picking, and hayrides: More farms are leaning into 'agritourism'", Caleigh Wells, Marketplace, 30 September 2026. https://www.marketplace.org/story/2026/09/30/farms-lean-into-agritourism-as-crop-prices-fall
"How Grinter Farms' sunflower fields northeast of Lawrence bloomed into a popular photo op", Bremen Keasey, Lawrence Journal-World, 30 August 2025. https://www2.ljworld.com/living/2025/aug/30/how-grinter-farms-sunflower-fields-northeast-of-lawrence-bloomed-into-a-popular-photo-op
"It's sunflower season in Douglas County", The Lawrence Times, 4 September 2026. https://lawrencekstimes.com/2026/09/04/sunflower-season-26/
"Patchewollock: Passing the pub test", Paul Daffey, RACV RoyalAuto, 10 September 2018. https://www.racv.com.au/royalauto/travelling/victoria/patchewollock-pub-silo-art.html
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