Vietnam Just Sold $3.45 Billion of Durian and 95% Went to One Buyer. The Durian Farm That Doesn't Need China to Say Yes
In the first seven weeks of the 2018 soybean marketing year, US farmers shipped about 7.4 million bushels of new-crop soybeans to China. A year earlier, over the same stretch, they had shipped about 239 million. That is a 97 percent drop, according to the American Farm Bureau Federation.
Nothing was wrong with the beans. One buyer changed its rules.
Vietnam's durian growers are now in the same position, only more so. Vietnamese customs data shows durian exports of US$3.45 billion in the first nine months of 2026, up 25%, and China took 95.5% of it. The way out is not a bigger market. It is more doors: bring paying visitors to your trees, and make your fruit last long enough to reach new buyers.
Short answer: Vietnam's durian exports hit US$3.45 billion in nine months, with 95.5% going to China. When one buyer takes almost everything, your income depends on its import rules and prices. Two answers: bring the buyer to the tree with farm tours, and extend shelf life so fruit can reach new markets or ride out gluts. The lesson for US, Canadian and UK farmers: never let one buyer own your income. |
What Vietnam's Numbers Really Say
Vietnam's durian exports reached US$3.45 billion between January and September 2026. China bought nearly US$3.3 billion of that. Second place went to Papua New Guinea, at nearly US$38 million, followed by Hong Kong and Taiwan.
Read that again. The second-biggest buyer took about one percent of what the first one took.
Prices are strong right now. FreshPlaza reports durian prices up 25 to 30 percent, because the Central Highlands harvest is nearing its end and off-season supply from the Mekong Delta is limited. Bulk orchard prices reached 70,000 to 75,000 dong per kilogram, and selected fruit sold for 90,000 to 95,000.
That is good news today. But a price rise caused by tight supply tells you nothing about what happens when your one big buyer tightens inspections or buys less. Vietnam's own agriculture ministry noted in October 2025 that a durian recovery followed earlier shipment rejections from China over cadmium and a banned dye.
Exporters can see the risk. India opened its market to fresh Vietnamese durian in July 2026, but FreshPlaza says pricing, tariffs, transport costs and cold chain requirements remain barriers. Some industry voices suggest frozen durian as an alternative to fresh shipments. The Vietnam Fruit and Vegetable Association forecasts annual durian exports of about US$4.5 to 4.7 billion, and urges investment in cold storage, traceability and long-term grower-exporter contracts.
A second report backs up the picture. Vietstock reported first-half 2026 durian exports of about US$1.08 billion, with China at about US$988 million.
When One Buyer Says No: Two Real Farm Stories
Vietnam is not the first to learn this. China bought about US$12 billion of US soybeans in 2017, which was 57% of all US soybean exports that year, according to the Congressional Research Service. In 2018 China put a 25% tariff on soybeans. USDA announced a trade aid package of up to US$12 billion on 24 July 2018, with soybean payments set at US$1.65 per bushel. USDA described those payments as short-term relief.
Canada learned it with canola. In 2024 China took 5.9 million tonnes of Canadian canola seed, worth about $4 billion and 67% of Canada's canola seed exports, according to Global Affairs Canada. This was not the first scare. In March 2019 China suspended the export licences of two big Canadian handlers, Richardson International and Viterra, citing pests in shipments. They were reinstated in May 2022, more than three years later. Then on 14 August 2025 a preliminary anti-dumping duty of 75.8% on Canadian canola seed took effect.
Crop | Biggest buyer's share | What the buyer did |
Vietnam durian | China, 95.5% (Jan-Sep 2026) | Orchard prices up 25-30% on tight supply; exporters now eye India and frozen fruit |
US soybeans | China, 57% (2017) | 25% tariff in 2018; USDA announced up to US$12 billion in aid |
Canadian canola seed | China, 67% (2024) | Licences suspended 2019 to 2022; 75.8% preliminary duty from August 2025 |
Reality Check: This is not a Vietnam problem or a China problem. It happens to any farm whose income hangs on one customer's rules: a processor, a supermarket, one exporter. High prices hide the risk. They do not remove it. |
Answer No. 1: Bring the Buyer to the Tree
A visitor standing under your trees cannot be stopped at a border. That is the quiet strength of agritourism.
Bloopy Durians, in Bentong, Pahang, Malaysia, runs durian farm tours, where visitors pay to eat durian under the trees. Its founder is Stephen Loke. The tour takes about 1.5 hours. Guests plant a durian tree, ride the four-wheel drive, and see bigger trees with durians hanging on them. Then, at the farmhouse, they eat durian, learn to identify varieties, learn how to tell a good durian (old-tree versus young-tree), and open a durian themselves. They can also pluck mangosteen, rambutan, duku, dokong and langsat, and meet the ducks, chickens, geese and rabbits.
The farm welcomes visitors from all over the world, including America, Canada, the UK, Australia, Germany, Japan, Russia, China, Singapore and Indonesia, and many companies send their staff and management. The farm comes up top on Google for "eat Musang King". Durian seasons run about four to five months a year, December to February and June to August, so the farm's WhatsApp group of loyal customers matters: they buy durians every season, which is recurring income.
None of that depends on one country's import rules. For more on the model, see our guides to the farm tour business, how a four-wheel-drive ride brought revenue to a durian farm, agritourism pricing and how much agritourism farms really make. Malaysia is also putting orchards on its tourism menu, as we covered in Malaysia's 66 farms and orchards on its official tourism menu.
Field-Tested Play: Build your "second door" this season. Pick the one thing a visitor can only do at your farm. Sell it as a package with a clear price. Then collect every guest's WhatsApp or email, so your best customers can buy from you directly, season after season. |
Answer No. 2: Make the Fruit Last Longer
Even with visitors, most farms still sell fruit beyond their gate. Durian is perishable, and every extra day in transit narrows your choice of buyers. That is why Vietnam's exporters are talking about cold storage, frozen product and new routes to India.
Bloopy Durians is the exclusive representative of Janny MT controlled atmosphere storage modules. In preliminary testing on local fruits at Bloopy Durians, the modules extended durian shelf life by about 5 to 10 days. With more testing and R&D, it could be longer. In a separate field test, mangosteens lasted up to 18 days. That was Bloopy Durians' own test, not a published study.
The modules are stackable and handled like pallets, and they can be exported inside reefer containers. They can also help store produce during gluts, so you are not forced to sell at the worst price. Read more in the Janny MT modules guide, the note for exporters and distributors, how post-harvest losses hit Southeast Asia and what a Janny MT demo farm visit looks like. Our look at Thailand's durian containers shows why every day counts on a long route.
Reality Check: The 5 to 10 days come from preliminary testing on local fruits in Malaysia. Janny MT has not been tested in Vietnam or Thailand, so the honest claim is that the modules can help, not that they do. They sit alongside refrigeration, not instead of it. |
Bloopy Durians wants to work with farmers, packhouses, cold-chain operators and distributors. If that is you, or you want to visit the farm, reach Stephen here: WhatsApp Stephen 017-9250613 · www.bloopydurians.com
The Lesson for US, Canadian and UK Farmers
You may never grow a durian. But if one customer buys most of your crop, whether a processor, a wholesaler, a single retailer or one export channel, the table above is your table. Soybean and canola farmers found that out the hard way, and USDA's own words for its aid were short-term relief.
The good news is that you do not have to rebuild your farm. You add doors. Many farms start with visitors, which is why crop prices falling can push farms towards agritourism, why commodity swings call for income diversification, and why our list of farm diversification ideas is a good place to begin. Climate adds its own pressure, as in El Niño's threat to Malaysia's durian trees.
Field-Tested Play: Run a one-buyer audit this week. Step 1: list your top three buyers and the share of income each one provides. Step 2: treat any buyer above half your income as a risk, as a rule of thumb. Step 3: add one channel you control, such as visitors or a direct customer list. Step 4: ask whether your product could last longer and reach a better price. Step 5: put a date on it. Bloopy Durians' durian season starts in December, so the timing is real. |
Frequently Asked Questions
How much durian did Vietnam export in 2026?
Vietnamese customs data cited by FreshPlaza shows US$3.45 billion in the first nine months of 2026, up 25% year on year. China took 95.5%, worth nearly US$3.3 billion.
Why is relying on one buyer risky?
Your income then depends on that buyer's import rules, inspections, tariffs and prices. Soybeans and canola show how fast these can change.
Can farm tours replace export income?
Not by themselves, and no number is promised here. They add a second channel that does not depend on a border, and they build a direct customer list.
Is India the answer for Vietnam's durian?
It is a new door. India opened to fresh Vietnamese durian in July 2026, but pricing, tariffs, transport costs and cold chain requirements remain barriers.
Does frozen durian solve the problem?
Some industry voices suggest frozen durian as an alternative to fresh shipments. It may widen the choice of markets, but it is a different product with different costs.
Can Janny MT help durian last longer?
In preliminary testing on local fruits at Bloopy Durians, the modules extended durian shelf life by about 5 to 10 days. It has not been tested in Vietnam or Thailand.
What should US, Canadian and UK farms do first?
Run the one-buyer audit above, then add one direct channel, such as visits, a direct customer list or farm sales.
Sources
FreshPlaza, "Durian exports rise 25% in Vietnam as dependence on China grows", 6 November 2026. Vietstock, "India opens market to fresh Vietnamese durian", July 2026, and "China spends nearly US$1b on Vietnamese durian in first half", August 2026. Vietnam Ministry of Agriculture and Environment, fruit and vegetable exports report, 24 October 2025. American Farm Bureau Federation (John Newton), soybean exports to China, 23 October 2018. Congressional Research Service, "Farm Policy: USDA's 2018 Trade Aid Package", February 2019. North Dakota State University Extension, USDA trade aid programme release, 27 August 2018. Global Affairs Canada, statement on China's preliminary anti-dumping measures on canola seed, August 2025. Farms.com, "China lifts Canadian canola ban", May 2022.
Want ideas you can start with what you already have? The free ebook "150 Ways to Unlock Hidden Wealth From Your Farm" sets out 150 ways to earn from agritourism, sorted into categories. Each idea shows its difficulty, a possible price setup and its earning potential, so you can pick a second income stream that suits your land, your buildings and your skills.
P.S. Remember the soybean farmers who watched 239 million bushels shrink to 7.4 million? Their beans were fine. Their problem was that one customer owned the door. Open a second one before you need it.
Stephen Loke of AgritourismSuccess.com, whose farm is featured in Bloomberg News and Asahi Shimbun.
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