El Niño Is Coming for Malaysia's Durian Trees. The Orchards That Survive a Bad Season Will Be the Ones With a Second Income
In Karak, Pahang, an hour's drive from Kuala Lumpur, Stephen Chow's workers collect ripe durians at night by headlamp. Three years of rain at flowering time cut his yield. Then afternoons hit 33 to 35°C between February and April 2026, and by early July his Grade A Musang King was selling for about RM35.20 a kilo, roughly half the price a year earlier. He expected a loss. Now Malaysia's Agriculture Department is warning that El Niño could make the next season harder.
The short answer: A long El Niño dry spell can make durian trees drop flowers and young fruit, especially where water is short. A farm that earns only from fruit has nothing to fall back on. The orchards that come through a bad season in the best shape are the ones with a second income that doesn't depend on the harvest: farm tours, a direct customer list, and a way to keep the fruit they do get fresh for longer. |
What Malaysia's Agriculture Department Actually Warned
On 2 November 2026, The Star reported that Agriculture Department director-general Datuk Nor Sam Alwi had warned that long, hot and dry El Niño conditions are a risk to durian production, especially for orchards without reliable water.
Her point is not that dry weather is always bad. A moderate dry spell can help trigger flowering. The trouble starts when it drags on. In her words, "Prolonged water deficit can adversely affect tree health, fruit retention and yield."
Here is what the Department says can go wrong:
Flower abortion and early fruit drop when trees suffer severe water stress during flowering and fruit setting.
Smaller or misshapen fruit, and pulp problems, when water stress hits fruit development.
Lower marketable yield, less income and less consistent quality at the farm gate.
The most risk for orchards with poor water supply, soil that holds little water, restricted rooting, or weak irrigation and water storage.
The areas to watch are Raub in Pahang, and Segamat, Muar, Tangkak and Batu Pahat in Johor. The window that matters most is January to March 2027, when dry weather could overlap with flowering.
What the Department Did Not Say
Two details keep this honest. First, the Department gave no yield figures. It said a reliable estimate of 2027 losses can't be made from the El Niño forecast alone, and it warned against blaming every change in output on El Niño, because tree age, pests, disease and orchard management matter too.
Second, the Malaysian Meteorological Department's 5 October outlook had the four Johor districts at average rainfall from November to March, and Raub at average until February, with slightly below-average rain in March.
The weather service is also warning of a split season. On 27 October, MetMalaysia's Maqrun Fadzli Mohd Fahmi said a Super El Niño is expected, with hotter, drier weather especially from late January to March. Before that, he expects three to five spells of prolonged heavy rain from November to January, with flood risk in Kelantan, Terengganu, Pahang and eastern Johor. Floods first, drought after.
For the global picture, see our guide to what the Super El Niño means for farm prices and your farm's second income.
Why One Bad Season Can Wipe Out a Whole Year of Orchard Income
A durian farm earns most of its money in a few short weeks. Fertiliser, pumping, labour and loan repayments arrive all year. When flowering fails, the bills don't pause.
Malaysian growers have already felt this in 2026, from both directions:
Too dry in Kedah. In April 2026, growers told local media that heat was running past the usual end of the dry season. At Chu Tiah Durian Orchard in Jitra, the manager said young fruit simply drops without enough water, and diesel for three days of pumping had jumped from about RM40 to about RM120.
Falling rivers in Penang. In Sungai Ara, Balik Pulau, Mohd Azwan Abd Rahim, who farms 13 hectares, expected his output to fall 40 to 50 per cent after river and stream levels dropped. He had produced about a tonne a day the season before.
Too wet in Pahang. Stephen Chow lost yield to pollination failure after three years of persistent rain during flowering.
Wet years hurt as well. A Universiti Teknologi Malaysia (UTM) study of 2015 to 2021 production data linked unusually heavy rain to lower durian harvests. A Free Malaysia Today report in 2017 said orchards were seeing yield drops of up to 90 per cent in a rainy season.
Then there is price. Chow's Grade A Musang King sold for about half its year-earlier price in July 2026, and roughly a third of its 2024 peak, as oversupply from hot, dry weather and more orchards reaching maturity pushed prices down.
So a fruit-only farm can lose in three ways at once: fewer fruit, higher costs and shaky prices. Growers can't control the weather. As Penang grower Kie Kim Hwa put it, "We live and die by the weather." What they can control is how many income streams the farm has.
Which Income Streams Survive a Weak Flowering?
This is a general guide, not a forecast for any one farm.
Income stream | Needs a big crop? | What a weak flowering does |
|---|---|---|
Wholesale fruit sales | Yes | Fewer fruit to sell, with prices that can swing either way |
Sales to your own customer list | Less volume needed | A smaller crop can go to loyal buyers first |
Farm tour tickets | No, you sell the experience | Visitors still come to see trees, ride, learn and taste |
Corporate and event supply | Yes, but in smaller orders | Good relationships help you place the fruit you do have |
Shelf-life extension after harvest | Works on any crop size | Helps a smaller crop reach better buyers |
Reality Check: A second income is not a magic shield. Visitors need a reason to come, a road they can drive and a safe farm. It takes months to build, which is why the time to start is before the weather turns, not after. |
The Same Lesson Drought-Hit Farmers Learned Everywhere
Farmers in other countries have been hit by the weather and reached the same answer.
United States. In the 2022 Census of Agriculture, 28,617 US farms and ranches earned money from agritourism and recreation, about US$1.26 billion in total, up 12.4 per cent after inflation from 2017. The average was about US$44,000 per farm. See our agritourism statistics guide for who earns the most.
United Kingdom. Defra found 72 per cent of English farm businesses had diversified income in 2024/25. Income from diversified activities averaged £22,400, about 31 per cent of average farm business income. After the driest July on record in England and Wales, the UK government made £65 million available to farmers in August 2026, through reprioritised Defra funding. Our post on farm diversification ideas lists the top seven.
Canada. A January 2024 cold snap killed almost every wine grape bud in British Columbia's Okanagan, and Wine Growers British Columbia projected BC grape and wine production 97 to 99 per cent lower than usual. That was cold, not drought, but the lesson is the same: wineries with tasting rooms had a way to keep welcoming visitors.
Australia. ABARES modelling shows a typical cropping farm's profit falling from about A$230,000 in a typical year to a loss of about A$125,000 in a 1-in-10 dry year. Read how paying guests carried six family farms through drought.
5 Moves to Make Before the January Flowering Window
Move 1: Check Your Water First
Start with the Department's own advice: assess your water early, maintain pumps and irrigation, use water efficiently, conserve soil moisture and watch for early signs of water stress.
The Department has also had reports of water shortages and requests for tube wells. Any tube well proposal needs a technical assessment of the site and the groundwater first, so ask early. It also points growers to its Smart Irrigation Management System for planning.
Move 2: Put a Visitor Offer on the Calendar
A tour doesn't need a record crop. It needs a guide, a story and something to see, touch and taste. Our guide to the farm tour business shows how to price one, and the farm readiness signs tell you if you are ready now.
Field-Tested Play: Start with people you already know. Invite friends, family, a church group, a school class or a company for a paid, guided farm walk and tasting. Ask happy guests for a Google review. Run this in your first month, learn what visitors enjoy, and only then start advertising. |
Move 3: Build a List You Can Message Directly
A list of loyal customers on WhatsApp or email lets you sell your best fruit before it reaches a trader. When crops are small, those buyers get first call, and you set the price.
Move 4: Protect Every Fruit You Harvest
In a short crop, every fruit counts. Grade carefully, handle gently and plan your sales so fruit doesn't sit. Durian Academy adviser Lim Chin Khee told AP that extreme weather cuts supply and can lift prices, and that well-prepared growers may even benefit. But 2026 shows prices can still fall when supply is high, so don't bank on a price rise.
Move 5: Write a Bad-Weather Policy and Check Your Insurance
Visitors book. Then the rain, haze or heat arrives. Decide in advance when you will reschedule, refund or move a tour. One UK pumpkin farm put the cost of a single storm weekend at about £50,000. Our bad-weather policy guide lists the 7 things to do before the next one.
How a Second Income Works at My Durian Farm in Bentong
I'm the founder of Bloopy Durians in Bentong, so I live with this risk too. Our durian seasons are short: about four to five months a year, across December to February and June to August. Outside those windows there is no fruit to sell.
That is why I run farm tours. A tour lasts about an hour and a half. Guests plant a durian tree, ride the four-wheel drive, walk among the big trees and see durians hanging on the branches. Then we sit down at the farmhouse to taste durians. I teach how to tell a good durian and how old-tree fruit differs from young-tree fruit, and guests open a durian themselves. They can also pick their own mangosteen, rambutan, duku, dokong and langsat, and meet the ducks, chickens, geese and rabbits.
Visitors have come to the farm from all over the world, and many companies send their staff and management. We also supply durians for corporate events. And we keep a WhatsApp list of loyal customers who buy durians whenever they are available, which is a reliable source of income. You can read how the four-wheel-drive adventure ride came about, and what hosting local and international visitors taught me.
Tour income doesn't depend on a record crop. It depends on people wanting a day on a real durian farm, so a smaller harvest hurts it far less than it hurts wholesale sales.
When the fruit does come, I also want it to last. Bloopy Durians is the Janny MT representative. Janny MT is a controlled-atmosphere storage module. In our preliminary testing on local fruits at Bloopy Durians, it extended durian shelf life by about 5 to 10 days. With more testing and research and development, the result could be longer. I'm not claiming it works for every fruit or every farm. But for a smaller crop, a few extra days can be the difference between rushing fruit to market and holding it for the best buyers. See what the Janny MT demo at the farm looks like, and why post-harvest technology has to prove itself on a real farm.
I can't tell you how El Niño will treat my own trees. Bentong is not on the Department's named watch list, and I won't pretend to know.
To book a farm tour, or to ask about Janny MT for your own fruit: WhatsApp Stephen 017-9250613 · www.bloopydurians.com
Insurance and Paperwork: 6 Questions to Ask Before You Open Your Gate
This is not legal or insurance advice. These are the questions to take to your local council and your insurance agent:
Does my farm insurance cover a visitor who is hurt on the farm?
Does my land approval allow paying visitors, and do I need a business licence from the local council?
Which activities, such as a four-wheel-drive ride or tree planting, need extra cover?
What do I do about falling fruit, uneven paths and wet ground in the tour area?
What are my refund and rescheduling rules if rain, haze or heat closes the farm?
Who is responsible for children and groups during the tour?
Our guides to agritourism insurance and what you need before your first paying visitor cover the same ground in more detail.
Frequently Asked Questions
Will El Niño destroy Malaysia's durian crop?
Nobody can say yet. The Agriculture Department said a reliable estimate of 2027 losses can't be made from the El Niño forecast alone. The risk is highest for orchards with poor water supply, especially from January to March 2027.
Is a dry spell bad for durian trees?
Not always. The Department says a moderate dry spell can help trigger flowering. A prolonged water deficit is the problem, because it can cause flower abortion, early fruit drop and smaller fruit.
Which areas should durian growers watch most closely?
The Department named Raub in Pahang, and Segamat, Muar, Tangkak and Batu Pahat in Johor, with particular attention from January to March 2027. It also said monitoring must be location-specific, because water availability differs even within a district.
What can a durian farmer do right now?
Check your water supply, maintain pumps and irrigation, and plan how you will conserve soil moisture. Then start building income that doesn't depend on the harvest, such as farm tours and a direct customer list.
Can farm tours really make money when the fruit crop is weak?
For many farms they do, though results vary. In the US, farms with agritourism income reported about US$44,000 in gross receipts on average in 2022. Start small, test with people you know, and grow from there.
Will durian prices go up if the crop is smaller?
Possibly, but don't count on it. An adviser told AP that extreme weather can cut supply and raise prices, yet in 2026 oversupply pushed Musang King prices well below the year before.
Does Janny MT work on durians?
In our preliminary testing on local fruits at Bloopy Durians, it extended durian shelf life by about 5 to 10 days. Results can vary by fruit and handling, and more testing is needed.
Your Next Step
You can't control the weather. You can control how many ways your farm earns. Take the Farm Readiness Quiz to see how ready your farm is for visitors, and what to fix first.
Then grab the free ebook 150 Ways to Unlock Hidden Wealth From Your Farm. It shows 150 ways to earn more from the land and equipment you already own, so you stop relying on one unpredictable harvest.
P.S. Stephen Chow's workers will keep collecting fruit by headlamp in Karak, whatever El Niño does to the next flowering. The farms best placed to ride out the year are the ones that have something to sell besides fruit.
By Stephen Loke of AgritourismSuccess.com, whose farm is featured in Bloomberg News and Asahi Shimbun. This article is general information, not legal, insurance or financial advice.
Sources
The Star, "Uncertain season for farms", 2 Nov 2026: thestar.com.my
The Star, "Super El Nino: Malaysia at risk of hotter, drier weather from late January to March 2027", 27 Oct 2026: thestar.com.my
The Star (AP), "Climate change squeezing Malaysian durian growers", 25 Aug 2026: thestar.com.my
twentytwo13.my, "Parched orchards, pricier fruit: Northern durian growers brace for punishing season", 10 Apr 2026: twentytwo13.my
UTM Nexus Research News, "Heavy Rainfall Impacts Durian Yields in Malaysia", 25 May 2025: research.utm.my
Free Malaysia Today, "Malaysian durian harvest severely hit by rainy weather", 9 Jul 2017: freemalaysiatoday.com
USDA Economic Research Service, "2022 Census of Agriculture: The majority of U.S. counties generate some agritourism income": ers.usda.gov
Penn State NERCRD, "U.S. Agritourism and Direct-to-Consumer Sales" data brief, May 2024: nercrd.psu.edu
Farmers Weekly, "Almost three-quarters of farms diversify to subsidise income" (Defra farm accounts, year to 28 Feb 2025): fwi.co.uk
GOV.UK, "PM: Farmers should not carry the risk of a changing climate alone", Aug 2026: gov.uk
Daily Hive, "Saving Okanagan Wine Country", 28 Feb 2024: dailyhive.com
iNFOnews, "Okanagan grape harvest wiped out for 2024": infonews.ca
ABARES, "The effects of drought and climate variability on Australian farms": agriculture.gov.au
Bloopy Durians: first-hand farm details and preliminary Janny MT testing on local fruits (not a published study)
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