The 'Super' El Niño Is Here: What It Means for Food Prices, Your Crops and Your Farm's Second Income

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A drought-cracked cornfield beside a cosy red barn hosting a farm workshop, showing how a second income protects a farm in an El Niño year

In the winter of 2023–24, during the last strong El Niño, Canada had its warmest winter on record. Grape growers in British Columbia's Okanagan Valley saw unseasonable daytime highs of 10 to 13°C.

Then a five-day cold snap hit, from January 11 to 15, with temperatures dropping below -25°C. When experts cut open thousands of grapevine buds, most showed no sign of life. The industry forecast that the 2024 crop of BC grapes and wine would come in 97 to 99% lower than normal, with losses of up to $445 million.

But that spring, tasting rooms in Osoyoos opened their doors anyway. "We really are open for business," one tasting room supervisor told local news. The grapes were gone, but the tasting rooms still had wine to pour, and a reason for people to visit.

Now a bigger El Niño is here. If your income rides on one harvest, this article is your early warning.

The short answer: El Niño is now among the strongest ever measured, and the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) expects it to last into early 2027. For this winter, NOAA favours a warmer northern US and a wetter southern US. Canada leans milder, and the UK leans wetter and stormier at first. World prices for sugar, cocoa, coffee, rice and palm oil are the ones to watch, and the price hit usually arrives 6 to 12 months after the ocean peaks. The farms best placed to ride it out earn a second income that doesn't depend on one harvest, such as indoor workshops, farm stays and events.

What Just Happened: The News in Plain English

On November 9, 2026, Euronews reported that WMO data show Pacific sea temperatures more than 3°C above normal in places. Some people now call it a "Super" or "Godzilla" El Niño.

The story's hook was breakfast cereal. Kellanova, which makes Kellogg's cereals in the UK, said Rice Krispies and Coco Pops would no longer use whole rice grains. They will use rice flour and corn flour instead. A spokesperson said changing weather is affecting the quality and availability of some rice and grains. The change covers the UK and Europe only. WK Kellogg Co. says Rice Krispies sold in the US and Canada are not changing.

Euronews lists the crops most at risk as corn, beans, coffee, cocoa, sugar, palm oil and rice. More than half the world relies on rice as a staple.

The numbers behind the headline are official. NOAA's Oceanic Niño Index (ONI) for August–October 2026 reached +2.46°C. At the same point in 1997 and 2015, two of the biggest El Niños on record, it stood at about +2.0°C. In its October 8 update, NOAA's Climate Prediction Center put the chance that this event beats every El Niño since 1950 at 83% for October to December.

Bar chart: NOAA Oceanic Niño Index for August to October 2026 at +2.46°C, ahead of 1982, 1997, 2015 and 2023 at the same point — Source: NOAA Climate Prediction Center, Oceanic Niño Index (ONI v5). 2026 peak not yet reached.

In September, the WMO said there was a near-100% chance that El Niño would last through February 2027, with a peak toward the end of 2026. Its Secretary-General, Celeste Saulo, said this exceptional El Niño "demands exceptional preparation and response."

What It Means for Your Winter: US, Canada and the UK

El Niño is born in the tropical Pacific, but it bends the jet stream that brings your winter weather. Here's what the official forecasters expect.

Region	What forecasters expect this winter	What it can mean on a farm
Northern US (Pacific Northwest, Midwest, much of the East)	Warmer than average (NOAA). Drier in parts of the northern Rockies and Great Lakes.	Less snow cover, freeze-thaw swings, early bud break, then frost risk
Southern US (California to Florida, East Coast)	Wetter than average. Drought likely to ease in the Southwest, Southern Plains and Southeast.	Flooded fields and lanes, muddy event days, more tornado risk in Florida and the Southeast
Canada	Milder overall across much of the country (Environment and Climate Change Canada). The Prairies may be drier in winter and spring.	More rain than snow, flooding risk, fruit trees waking too early
UK	Wetter and stormier in autumn and early winter (Met Office). Colder spells possible later in winter.	Waterlogged ground, cancelled outdoor events, a late cold snap

El Niño winter 2026-27 outlook: warmer northern US, wetter southern US, milder Canada, wetter and stormier UK early winter — Based on NOAA's 2026–27 US Winter Outlook (Oct 15, 2026), Environment and Climate Change Canada and the Met Office.

The Met Office's Professor Adam Scaife put it bluntly: he has never seen an El Niño signal this intense in their forecasts.

Reality Check: El Niño shifts the odds. It does not write a guarantee. NOAA itself says a stronger El Niño raises the odds of the usual impacts but doesn't guarantee them anywhere. The UK's coldest winter in three decades (2009–10) and one of its mildest (2006–07) both came in El Niño years. Plan for a wider range of weather, not one forecast.

NOAA's next full winter outlook update is due on November 19. Check it before you lock in your winter event calendar.

What It Means for Prices: What You Sell and What You Buy

A weather shock on the other side of the world still reaches your farm gate. It moves the price of what you sell and the price of what you buy.

Here's the twist most headlines miss. Some of the tree crops that usually suffer most in an El Niño had not jumped yet. WisdomTree's figures to September 21 showed cocoa down 9%, coffee down 22% and orange juice down 28% for the year. Sugar, by contrast, was already up 20% and cotton up 25%.

Bar chart of 2026 year-to-date commodity prices: cotton +25%, sugar +20%, cocoa -9%, coffee -22%, orange juice -28% — Year-to-date changes to September 21, 2026, as reported by WisdomTree (published October 6, 2026).

Why? Farm prices usually react 6 to 12 months after the ocean peaks. The weather has to change local rainfall first, then hit flowering and harvest. Coffee is a tree crop, so damage to this year's flowering shows up in the 2027/28 crop. Analysts expect most of the price impact from this El Niño to land in 2027.

Timeline showing El Niño peaking in late 2026 and food price impacts arriving 6 to 12 months later in 2027 — How a weather shock turns into a price shock. Sources: WMO, WisdomTree.

For US, Canadian and UK farmers, that cuts both ways:

What you sell may fetch more if a rival growing region fails. Analysts note that rice exporters like the US could benefit if Asian crops suffer.
What you buy can cost more: feed, sugar for jam and baking, cocoa for your farm shop's chocolate, vegetable oil and freight.
Your own harvest is still at the mercy of your local weather, whatever the world price does.

One risk consultancy, Risilience, has warned of a possible 14% fall in farm output worth $342.2 billion over two years. That's a forecast, not a fact yet. But it shows how big the stakes are.

We've seen this pattern before. Read why betting the farm on one commodity is so risky right now and why families drive out to farms when food prices climb.

The Real Problem: One Harvest Is One Bet

Most farms are paid once or twice a year, for one or two crops, at whatever price the market offers that week. A late frost, a flooded field or a storm on picking day can wipe out a whole season.

You've seen it on this blog before. An April freeze cost one orchard $1 million in lost U-pick sales. Thirty millimetres of rain in 10 minutes took a quarter of one farm's crop. And this year's drought left one pumpkin patch with no pumpkins at all.

A strong El Niño doesn't create these risks. It makes them more likely, in more places, at the same time.

Why a Second Income Rides Out a Weather Year

The Okanagan tasting rooms show the answer. When the crop failed, the farm still had something to sell: an experience, a place to visit, a reason to drive out.

That's what agritourism does for a farm's income. According to the USDA's 2022 Census of Agriculture, 28,617 US farms and ranches earned income from agritourism and recreation. Together they took in $1.26 billion, up 12.4% from 2017 after inflation. The average operation earned about $44,000 from it.

Comparison of weather-exposed farm income versus weather-resilient second incomes such as indoor workshops, farm stays and events — Not every income stream is equally exposed to the weather.

The best weather-year income streams have three things in common. They happen indoors or under cover, they don't need a perfect crop, and they can be booked in advance.

Indoor workshops. A bread, pasta, wreath or cheese class in a barn runs rain or shine. See our guides to hosting farming-skills workshops and farm cooking classes.
Farm stays. Guests book months ahead and pay a nightly rate whether or not the orchard blooms. Here's how to start a farm stay.
Events. Seasonal dinners, workshops and celebrations spread income across the year. Get ideas from our list of farm events by season.

Australian farmers have a name for this: drought-proofing. Read how paying guests carried six family farms through drought.

5 Moves to Make Before the El Niño Winter Peaks

Field-Tested Play No. 1: Write your bad-weather policy now. Decide what happens to tickets and bookings when rain, snow or wind closes your farm, and put it on your website before you sell a single ticket. One storm weekend cost a UK pumpkin farm £50,000. Here are the 7 things every visitor farm must do before the next storm.

Field-Tested Play No. 2: Move one money-maker under a roof. Pick one indoor activity you could run this winter in a barn, shed or farm kitchen. Price it, book it and fill it before the weather turns.

Field-Tested Play No. 3: Sell ahead of the weather. Pre-booked workshops, gift vouchers and farm-stay deposits turn uncertain future income into cash in the bank today.

Field-Tested Play No. 4: Build a winter calendar. The off-season can pay. Our guide to the 12-month farm shows how to keep cash coming in after harvest.

Field-Tested Play No. 5: Update your risk plan. Add flooding, ice, power cuts and blocked lanes to your plan. Use our free one-page agritourism risk management plan.

Insurance and paperwork: questions to ask before you open

This isn't legal advice. Take these questions to your insurer, your local planning office and your crop-insurance agent:

Does my crop insurance cover frost or flood damage after an unusually warm spell? What does it leave out?
Does my farm policy cover paying visitors at indoor workshops and events, not just on farm tours?
If I cancel an event because of weather, what do I owe ticket holders under local consumer law?
Do I need permission or a permit to host overnight guests or run a farm kitchen class?

For a full walk-through, read agritourism insurance: what it covers and what it costs.

A Lesson From a Durian Farm in Malaysia

At Bloopy Durians, the farm I founded in Bentong, Malaysia, durian season lasts only about four to five months a year, in two short windows. A farm like that can't live on one harvest day.

So the income doesn't sit on the trees alone. Visitors from all over the world come for paid farm tours, with a four-wheel-drive ride, durian tasting and fruit picking. A WhatsApp list of loyal customers buys durians every time they're ready. And the farm supplies durians for corporate events. When the weather turns against one stream, the others keep working.

Frequently Asked Questions

What is a "super" El Niño?

It's an informal name for a very strong El Niño. NOAA calls an event "very strong" when the Pacific's surface waters run more than about 2°C above average. NOAA's index for August to October 2026 reached +2.46°C.

How long will this El Niño last?

The WMO expects it to peak toward the end of 2026 and last at least into early 2027. It gave a near-100% chance that El Niño will continue through February 2027.

Will El Niño make this winter warmer where I farm?

In NOAA's outlook, the northern US leans warmer and the southern US leans wetter. Canada leans milder. The UK leans wetter and stormier early in the winter, with a chance of colder spells later. These are odds, not promises.

Will El Niño raise food prices?

Analysts expect pressure on sugar, cocoa, coffee, rice and palm oil, but most of the price impact is expected in 2027. Farm prices usually react 6 to 12 months after the ocean peaks.

How can a farm protect its income in an El Niño year?

Add income that doesn't depend on one harvest: indoor workshops, farm stays and events that are booked in advance. Write a bad-weather policy, check your insurance and plan a winter calendar.

Is El Niño caused by climate change?

No. The WMO says El Niño is a natural climate pattern. But this one is unfolding in a warmer world, which can make its effects more extreme.

Your Next Step

You can't control the Pacific Ocean. You can control how many ways your farm gets paid.

Take the free Farm Readiness Quiz to see which second income suits your farm. Then grab the free ebook packed with ideas you can start this winter.

Take the Free Farm Readiness Quiz

Inside 150 Ways to Unlock Hidden Wealth From Your Farm, you'll find indoor, rain-or-shine and off-season ideas, so a bad weather year doesn't have to mean a bad income year.

Get the Free 150 Ways Ebook

P.S. The Okanagan grape growers couldn't stop a five-day freeze. But the farms with a tasting room still had wine to pour and a reason for people to visit that spring. This El Niño is a warning shot. Build your second income now, while you still have the winter to do it.

By Stephen Loke of AgritourismSuccess.com, whose farm is featured in Bloomberg News and Asahi Shimbun. This article is for general information only and is not legal, insurance or financial advice. Weather and price figures are forecasts and can change; check the latest updates from NOAA, Environment and Climate Change Canada and the Met Office.