Europe's Farmers Just Stopped Buying Fertiliser. Here's Why That Should Change How You Plan Next Year's Income.

6 days ago

11 min read

Split photo: on the left, an empty fertiliser spreader and unopened bags on a bare grey winter field; on the right, a busy farm shop and farm event at golden hour with families and string lights

Across Europe this autumn, the same quiet decision keeps being made. The fertiliser quote comes in. The farmer reads it, does the sums, and puts it back in the drawer. Not this month. Or not as much as last year.

They haven't stopped buying completely. But they have pulled back hard, and on 28 October 2026 the numbers landed. According to market analysts ICIS, nitrogen fertiliser demand in the European Union is running about 20% below normal for the season. Phosphate buying is down at least 30%.

Why should that matter in Iowa, Saskatchewan or Shropshire? When farmers can't afford to feed their crops, yields can fall, and income can fall with them. Europe is showing what happens when one cost you can't control decides your whole year.

The farms that ride out squeezes like this usually earn part of their money from a line that needs no fertiliser at all: visitors, events, a farm shop, a tour, a stay.

The Short Answer

Europe's farmers have cut fertiliser buying sharply (nitrogen about 20% below normal, phosphate down 30% or more) because prices, diesel and shipping costs have climbed while crop prices fell. Fertiliser prices in the US and UK have climbed this year too. This winter, while you plan next season's inputs, plan one income line that doesn't depend on them. Visitor income (tours, pick-your-own, events, farm shops, stays) uses your land and your story, not nitrogen, and you set the price.

Bar chart showing EU nitrogen fertiliser demand about 20% below normal, phosphate purchases down 30% or more, and EU fertiliser imports about 25% below the five-year average in 2026 — Europe's farmers are buying far less fertiliser this autumn. Sources: ICIS and Bloomberg, via UkrAgroConsult, 28 Oct 2026.

What Just Happened in Europe

According to the report, carried by UkrAgroConsult from Bloomberg, EU fertiliser imports for January to September 2026 came to 13.8 million tonnes. That is about 25% below the five-year average.

Imports into Germany, Poland and France are sharply lower too, though the report doesn't make clear what those country figures are compared with.

The reasons are stacking up:

Extreme heat and drought had already damaged crops this year.
The Iran war pushed up input costs, especially diesel.
Shipping trouble on the Black Sea and through the Strait of Hormuz added cost and delay.
High raw material costs for European fertiliser makers.
An EU carbon border levy on imported fertiliser, due to start in January, could add more cost pressure.

Rabobank warns that supply risk will rise as spring nears. Spring nitrogen goes on winter wheat and rapeseed from late February. There is still time to restock, but delivery delays could make that harder.

Using less fertiliser, or using it late, could cut yields. How much depends on prices and supply between now and spring.

Why Farmers Are Holding Back: The Squeeze in One Picture

This isn't stubbornness. It's arithmetic. Eurostat figures, reported by Euronews on 2 October 2026, compared April to June 2026 with the same three months of 2025. Fertiliser and soil improver prices rose 13.4%. Energy and lubricants jumped 22%. Overall, the cost of goods and services farmers use went up 4.7%.

Meanwhile, the prices farmers were paid for what they grew fell 5.8%. Cereal prices fell 5.6%. Milk fell 16.6%.

Diverging bar chart of EU farm price changes in Q2 2026 vs Q2 2025: energy up 22%, fertilisers up 13.4%, all inputs up 4.7%, output prices down 5.8%, cereals down 5.6%, milk down 16.6% — The EU farm squeeze: costs up, prices down. Source: Eurostat, reported by Euronews, 2 Oct 2026.

The gap between those two lines is your living, and it is shrinking from both ends.

The European Commission's own page says nitrogen fertiliser prices in April 2026 were 71% higher than the 2024 average. It also says fertiliser affordability, measured against cereal prices, is at its lowest since 2022.

Brussels has moved. The EU suspended import duties on key nitrogen fertilisers such as urea and ammonia for a year, approved on 22 May 2026. On 17 July it allocated €540 million to compensate farmers hit by higher fertiliser and energy costs.

That help is real, but spread across a continent of farms it buys time, not a fix. If you've read my piece on Europe's subsidy shake-up, you'll know why the smartest farmers never let a government cheque become the plan.

Reality Check:

Fertiliser costs are 7 to 8% of total input costs for the EU farm sector as a whole, according to the European Commission, but "much more for certain sectors." For some farms, such as arable ones, the share can be much higher. Look at your own accounts, not the average.

"That's Europe. I Farm in America."

DTN's retail survey for the week of 12 to 16 October 2026 found all eight major fertilisers priced higher than a year earlier in the US. Anhydrous averaged $987 a ton, up 18%. Urea averaged $674 a ton, up 13%.

Bar chart of US retail fertiliser prices in mid-October 2026 vs a year earlier: anhydrous up 18% at $987 per ton, urea up 13% at $674 per ton, and six others up 2% to 7% — All eight major US fertilisers cost more than a year ago. Source: DTN Retail Fertilizer Trends, 21 Oct 2026.

USDA's September 2026 farm income forecast puts US fertiliser, lime and soil conditioner spending at $39.6 billion in 2026. That's a forecast rise of $5.3 billion, or 15.3%, on 2025. Net farm income is forecast to slip 2.6%.

For corn and wheat, this is not a side cost. USDA's Economic Research Service says fertiliser has made up 33 to 44% of corn operating costs since 2020, and 34 to 45% for wheat.

Follow this year's news, from record US farm debt to crop prices sliding, and the pattern is plain. Costs rise. Prices don't follow.

Canada and the UK Are Feeling It Too

In Canada, Farm Credit Canada forecast fertiliser at nearly C$10 billion of C$22.5 billion in 2026 crop input spending. That forecast came out in September 2025, before the Iran war pushed prices higher.

After the war began at the end of February 2026, the Strait of Hormuz closure hit urea supply. In March, FCC offered borrowers extra credit lines of up to C$500,000. Grain Growers of Canada pointed out the catch: it's more debt.

In Britain, AHDB figures show UK-produced ammonium nitrate at £402 a tonne in February 2026 (a monthly figure). By 20 March it was £504. In the week ending 16 October it was still £485, about £80 a tonne above February (AHDB puts the rise at £83).

Line chart of UK-produced ammonium nitrate prices in 2026: £393 in January, £402 in February, £504 on 20 March, £521 in early April and £485 in mid-October — UK ammonium nitrate is still about £80 a tonne above February. Sources: AHDB; Farmers Weekly, 16 Apr 2026.

The UK has tried to ease the pain with tariff cuts. I covered why you shouldn't build your budget on that in The Treasury Just Cut Fertiliser Tariffs. Don't Bank on It.

Where	What's happening	Source
European Union	Nitrogen demand about 20% below normal; phosphate buying down 30%+	ICIS via Bloomberg, Oct 2026
European Union	Imports Jan-Sep 13.8 million tonnes, about 25% below five-year average	Bloomberg via UkrAgroConsult, Oct 2026
European Union	Fertiliser prices up 13.4%; farm output prices down 5.8% (Q2 2026)	Eurostat via Euronews, Oct 2026
United States	All 8 major fertilisers above year-ago prices; urea $674/ton, up 13%	DTN, Oct 2026
United States	Fertiliser spending forecast $39.6 billion in 2026, up 15.3%	USDA forecast, Sep 2026
Canada	Fertiliser forecast near C$10 billion of C$22.5 billion crop inputs (pre-war forecast)	Farm Credit Canada, Sep 2025
United Kingdom	UK ammonium nitrate £485/t mid-October, up from £402/t in February	AHDB, Oct 2026

The Real Lesson: You Can't Control the Bag. You Can Control the Mix.

You can't set the price of urea, open the Strait of Hormuz or make it rain. What you can decide this winter is how much of next year's income hangs on those things.

Crop income works one way. You buy fertiliser, diesel and seed at world prices, grow, hope the weather plays fair, then sell at a price someone else sets.

Visitor income works another. People pay for a tour, a pick-your-own morning, a pumpkin weekend, a farm-shop visit or a night's stay. They are buying the experience, and you set the price.

Diagram comparing crop income, which depends on world-priced fertiliser, weather and market prices, with visitor income, where guests pay for an experience and the farmer sets the price — Two ways to earn from the same farm. Which one does a fertiliser spike hit?

Visitor income has costs, and pick-your-own still needs a crop. But the price of a ticket, a tour or a stay is yours to set, and your land, buildings and story don't jump 13% when a shipping lane closes.

Field-Tested Play:

When you sit down to price next season's fertiliser, open a second page. List every asset that could earn without a bag of anything: an empty barn, a pretty field edge, a pond, your Saturday mornings, your family's story. That page is the start of your second income.

The Numbers Behind Visitor Income

In the United States, the 2022 Census of Agriculture counted 28,617 farms with agritourism and recreation income. Together they took in $1.26 billion, an average of about $44,000 a farm. That income rose 12.4% from 2017 after inflation, according to USDA's Economic Research Service.

The fastest growth came from the smallest places. Farms under 10 acres grew their combined agritourism receipts 137.2% between 2017 and 2022, according to Penn State's Northeast Regional Center for Rural Development. I break those numbers down in Agritourism Statistics 2026.

In England, Defra's farm accounts for 2024/25 show 72% of farm businesses had some diversified activity. The average income from diversification on those farms was £31,100. For 26% of them, diversification brought in at least half of their farm business income.

Not all of that is tourism (letting out buildings earns the most per farm), but it shows how many British farms already lean on income that has nothing to do with the fertiliser bill.

A Real Farm That Did the Sums

Andrew Donnell is a seventh-generation farmer at Donnell Century Farm in Jackson, Tennessee. The farm dates to 1826.

The family now leases out its crop ground and focuses on a farm adventure with 30 attractions. He told DTN's Progressive Farmer why:

"None of the commodities are working well when I put a pencil to it."

That's the same pencil Europe's farmers are holding over their fertiliser quotes. Dull's Tree Farm in Indiana says food makes up 20 to 25% of its revenue, according to the same report. That money comes from the visit, not from a commodity price someone else sets. You'll find more farms that made the switch in Why Farms Are Turning to Agritourism to Survive.

Field-Tested Play:

Don't try to replace your crop. Add one paid visitor offer that fits your farm, then grow it. Start with what you already own; see Asset-Light Agritourism for ideas that need almost no building.

What I Learned on My Own Farm

I'm Stephen Loke of AgritourismSuccess.com, whose farm is featured in Bloomberg News and Asahi Shimbun. I'm the founder of Bloopy Durians in Bentong, Malaysia.

Our durian seasons add up to only about four to five months a year. If the farm lived on fruit sales alone, the whole year would ride on a few months and a few prices.

So we built more than one way to earn. The farm welcomes visitors from all over the world. Many companies send their staff and management to the farm. We supply durians for corporate events. And we keep a WhatsApp list of loyal customers who buy whenever durians are available, which has become a reliable source of income.

None of that came from selling more fruit. It came from selling the farm itself: the place, the story and the people.

How to Plan Next Year's Income This Winter

Winter is when you plan your inputs. Plan your income mix at the same time.

No. 1: Find your fertiliser exposure. What share of last year's costs was fertiliser? If prices rose another 15%, what would that do to your profit? Write the number down.

No. 2: Pick one visitor offer for next season. Just one: a tour, a pick-your-own patch, an event, a farm shop table or a stay. My guide to farm event ideas by season has 30 to choose from.

No. 3: Price it from the guest's side. Don't price a morning on your farm like a bushel of wheat.

No. 4: Cost it properly. Use real numbers for signs, parking, toilets, staff and marketing. My breakdown of what it costs to start an agritourism business shows startup costs by activity.

No. 5: Give it its own budget line. Track its income and costs separately so you can see whether it works. My free agritourism business plan template will help.

No. 6: Watch your cash flow timing. Crop money usually arrives once or twice a year. Visitor money often arrives on the day. That timing can matter as much as the total, as I explain in Farm Cash Flow Problems.

Reality Check:

Visitor income is no magic fix. It brings its own costs and risks: insurance, staffing, weather, permits, paperwork and marketing. In Defra's 2024/25 figures, English farms running tourist accommodation and catering averaged £8,700 from it: a useful second line, not a fortune. Start small, test it, and grow what works.

Questions to Ask Before You Open the Gate

This isn't legal advice. These are questions to take to the right professionals before your first paying guest arrives.

Ask your insurer: Does my farm policy cover paying visitors, or do I need a separate liability policy for agritourism? See Agritourism Insurance: What It Covers.
Ask your local planning or zoning office: Do I need permission to host visitors, events or overnight guests on agricultural land?
Ask your state or provincial agriculture department: Does my area have an agritourism liability law, and what signs or registration does it require? My Agritourism Laws by State guide is a starting point for US farms.
Ask your accountant: How should I record visitor income, and does it change my tax position?

The Bottom Line

Europe's farmers aren't cutting back because they want to. The sums stopped working, and some could lose yield because of it.

Fertiliser costs in the US, Canada and the UK have climbed too. This winter, plan your fertiliser. Then plan the income that doesn't need any.

Frequently Asked Questions

Did Europe's farmers really stop buying fertiliser?

Not completely. They cut back sharply. ICIS says EU nitrogen fertiliser demand is about 20% below normal for the season, and phosphate buying is down at least 30%. EU fertiliser imports from January to September 2026 were about 25% below the five-year average.

Why are fertiliser prices so high in 2026?

The Iran war and higher diesel costs, shipping disruption on the Black Sea and through the Strait of Hormuz, high raw material costs for European producers, and an EU carbon border levy on imported fertiliser due to start in January. The European Commission says nitrogen prices in April 2026 were 71% above the 2024 average.

Are US fertiliser prices going up too?

Yes. DTN's survey for mid-October 2026 found all eight major fertilisers above year-ago prices, with urea at $674 a ton, up 13%. USDA forecasts US fertiliser spending at $39.6 billion in 2026, up 15.3%.

Will cutting fertiliser reduce crop yields?

It can. Reports on the European cutbacks say reduced or delayed fertiliser use could hurt yields, but how much depends on prices and supply before spring applications begin in late February.

How does agritourism protect a farm from high input costs?

Visitor income sells an experience rather than a commodity. Most of it needs no fertiliser, and you set the price. It adds a second income line rather than replacing your crop.

How much do US farms earn from agritourism?

The 2022 Census of Agriculture counted 28,617 farms earning $1.26 billion from agritourism and recreation, an average of about $44,000 a farm. Results vary widely, and many farms earn far less than the average.

Find Your Farm's Second Income

Find out which visitor income fits your land, your buildings and your time. Take the free Farm Readiness Quiz; it takes a few minutes and shows where your farm is strongest. Then grab the free 21-Point Agritourism Blueprint, a step-by-step checklist for adding visitor income to your farm.

Take the Farm Readiness Quiz

Get the free 21-Point Agritourism Blueprint

P.S. Somewhere in Europe tonight, a farmer is putting a fertiliser quote back in a drawer and hoping spring is kind. You can do something different. Plan the income that doesn't need that quote at all, and start it before your next season begins.

Stephen Loke of AgritourismSuccess.com, whose farm is featured in Bloomberg News and Asahi Shimbun. This article is general information, not legal, insurance, tax or financial advice. Prices and forecasts quoted are from the sources listed and can change; check current figures and speak to qualified professionals about your own farm.