74% of Brazilian Farmers Surveyed Expect 2027 to Be No Better. What the World's Soybean Giant Is Telling Your Farm
On October 27, two days after Brazil's presidential election, 323 farmers across 14 Brazilian states answered a short survey about next year.
In effect, they were asked three things. Will 2027 be better? Will you invest more? Will borrowing get cheaper? Most said no, no and no. In the state of Pará, every farmer surveyed expected 2027 to be worse.
Why should you care? Their country is forecast to ship about 6 in 10 of the soybeans traded on Earth this season. When even they are pulling back, hoping for better commodity prices next year is a thin plan. But one market Brazil can never take from you: people who will pay to visit your farm.
The Short Answer: Brazil's farmers expect a hard 2027: 74% don't expect it to beat 2026, 83% won't raise investment and 84% expect borrowing costs to rise. You can't win a price war with Brazil. But no farm in Brazil can sell a tour, a pick-your-own morning or a farm-stand pie in your county. Visitor income is the one market they can't take. |
What Brazil's Farmers Are Saying About 2027
Grão Direto ran the survey through its Grainsights platform for The AgriBiz, which published it on November 3, 2026.
Survey finding (323 farmers, 14 states, Oct 27, 2026) | Result |
|---|---|
Expect borrowing costs to rise further in 2027 | 84% |
Do not plan to raise investment versus 2026 | 83% |
Do not expect 2027 to be better than 2026 | 74% |
Gave all three pessimistic answers at once | 61% |
Fully optimistic (invest more, expect better) | 5% |
Say exchange-rate expectations shape how they sell grain | Nearly 80% |
Farmers in Pará expecting 2027 to be worse | 100% |
Farmers in Mato Grosso expecting 2027 to be worse | 70% |
Source: Grão Direto / Grainsights survey for The AgriBiz, published November 3, 2026.
Then the currency moved. The dollar surged 9% against the Brazilian real in the week of the survey, closing at 5.44 reais on October 30.
A weaker real makes Brazil's soybeans cheaper for foreign buyers and usually lifts farmers' revenue in reais. But it also raises the local cost of dollar-linked inputs such as fertilizers, seeds and crop chemicals, The AgriBiz noted. Brazil's farmers are squeezed, and they still have to sell.
Why Brazil's Record Crop Is Your Price Problem
Brazil's national supply agency, Conab, forecasts a record 2026/27 soybean crop of 181.6 million tonnes, up 0.7% on the season before. USDA's latest forecast, from November 10, is even bigger at 186 million tonnes.
Share of global soybean exports | Brazil | United States |
|---|---|---|
2015/16 | 38.8% | 39.8% |
2025/26 (S&P Global estimate, March 2026) | 59.2% | 22.6% |
2026/27 (USDA forecast) | 62% | not given |
Source: S&P Global Energy CERA analysts (March 2026); USDA Economic Research Service via RFD-TV (May 2026).
Ten years ago the two were neck and neck. For 2025/26, S&P Global's analysts estimated Brazil's share at more than twice America's. If your soybeans go into the world market, from Iowa or Ontario, Brazil is your competitor on every bushel.
What about price? USDA's November 10 forecast puts the 2026/27 US season-average soybean price at $12.10 a bushel, up 10 cents from October. A year earlier, in November 2025, USDA's forecast for the 2025/26 crop was $10.50.
Prices have been swinging. January soybean futures slipped below $12 in early November for the first time since early August, DTN reported. Then on November 10, USDA raised the record US yield only slightly, to 53.3 bushels an acre, and cut ending stocks, and futures jumped back above $12. Trading Economics noted that good planting conditions in Brazil point to strong competition from South America.
No one knows where prices land in 2027. DTN pointed out that after an abnormally dry October, "the jury is very much still out" on Brazil's crop. That is the point. Your price will be decided by rain in Mato Grosso, buyers in China and the dollar-real exchange rate. Not by you.
There is one more clue. Conab says Brazil's soybean area is growing just 1.4%, the slowest expansion in 20 years, because of tighter producer margins. Even the giant is feeling the squeeze. It is the same lesson as why betting the farm on one commodity is so risky, on a global scale.
The Credit Squeeze, in Brazil and at Home
In Brazil, 84% of surveyed farmers expect borrowing to get more expensive. On November 4, Brazil's central bank held its benchmark Selic rate at 13.75% and paused its rate cuts.
At home, it is cheaper, but not cheap. The average interest rate on farm operating loans at US commercial banks was 6.66% in the third quarter of 2026, according to farmdoc daily at the University of Illinois. In the third quarter of 2020 it was 3.20%.
Bank lending is shrinking, too. Non-real estate farm loan volume at commercial banks fell 25% from a year earlier.
From November 1, 2026, USDA's Farm Service Agency charges 5.625% on direct operating loans and 6.25% on direct ownership loans. See what FSA's 5.6% rate means for your farm and record US farm debt.
Reality Check: Don't answer a credit squeeze with a big new loan. Start with land, buildings and skills you already have, prove demand, then write an agritourism business plan before you borrow a cent. |
The One Market Brazil Can't Take
A Brazilian soybean can cross an ocean. A hayride can't.
A family paying for a farm tour, a pick-your-own basket or a Saturday class is buying something that only exists on your land. Your rivals are the farms within driving distance, not Mato Grosso.
The money is real. US farms earned $1.26 billion from agritourism in 2022, up 12.4% from 2017 after inflation, according to USDA's Economic Research Service. See our full agritourism statistics. University of Vermont extension professor Lisa Chase told Reuters that about 7% of US farms offer agritourism, including selling farm products to visitors, and that many have added $25,000 to $100,000 a year.
In England, 72% of farm businesses had some diversified activity in 2024/25, according to Defra. Those farms averaged £31,100 from it, mostly from letting out buildings. Tourist accommodation and catering averaged £8,700. We broke down the top ways English farms earn off the field.
Heap's Giant Pumpkin Farm, Illinois
Heap's is a large corn and soybean operation. Its commodity corn and soybeans are often exported abroad. It also runs a fall season with hayrides, a corn maze, sunflowers, mums and pumpkins.
Co-manager Kaylee Heap told Reuters that diversifying is the reason the farm is in better shape: "If we just focused on row crops, we'd be having a different conversation."
Boots Farms, Missouri
The Boots family grows corn and soybeans near Moberly, Missouri. Their son Hunter started a pumpkin patch in high school as an FFA project, with 1,000 seeds, about an acre of pumpkins. By 2025 it had quadrupled.
In 2023 they added a 6-acre corn maze. It uses about 1 acre of corn that would otherwise be harvested. In 2025, admission was $10 for the maze and extra activities, and fall activities drew upwards of 1,000 families a year. "Still, it's provided another source of revenue for the farm," Melissa Boots told the Columbia Missourian.
Patterson Fruit Farm, Ohio
This sixth-generation farm east of Cleveland earns about a fifth of its revenue from its ticketed fun fest, weddings and pick-your-own apples, Marketplace reported in September 2026.
Claudia Schmidt, who teaches agricultural economics at Penn State, told Marketplace why farms are doing this: crop prices are falling, the weather is less reliable and "input costs are rising."
Field-Tested Play: Price the visit, not the crop. A bushel is worth what Chicago says. A guided hour on your farm is worth what guests will happily pay. Use our agritourism pricing guide, learn to build a farm tour people pay to book, and see 10 farms that filled the gap with agritourism. |
Where to Start This Winter
No. 1: Know your gap. Run next year's crop budget at USDA's $12.10 forecast, then again at a lower price. The difference is how much new income you need.
No. 2: Pick one offer. A farm tour, pick-your-own, a farm stand, a class or one event. Use what you already own.
No. 3: Make five checks. Insurer, county or planning office, state law, lender and accountant. Questions below.
No. 4: Price it from your costs. Count your time, help, insurance and a fair margin. Don't copy the cheapest farm in the county.
No. 5: Sell 20 seats first. Book one paid tour or tasting before spring planting. Collect every guest's phone number or email. That list becomes your most loyal customers.
Legal and Insurance: Questions to Ask Before Your First Paying Visitor
This is general information, not legal or insurance advice. Rules differ by state, province and country.
Ask your insurer: Does my farm policy cover paying guests, or do I need commercial liability or an agritourism endorsement? See our agritourism insurance guide.
Ask your county or planning office: Is agritourism a permitted use on my land? Do parking, signs, a farm stand or a building the public enters need a permit? In the UK, ask whether you need planning permission.
Check your state's law: Is there an agritourism liability act, and what warning-sign wording does it require? See agritourism laws by state.
Ask your lender: Does my loan agreement allow a new business on the farm or on land pledged as collateral?
Ask your accountant: How is visitor income taxed, and do I collect sales tax on tickets? Here are the tax questions to ask your accountant.
Reality Check: A signed waiver is not an insurance policy. Get the coverage confirmed in writing before you take the first booking. |
What My Durian Farm Taught Me About This
I'm the founder of Bloopy Durians, a durian farm in Bentong, Malaysia. Our durian seasons are short: two windows a year, roughly December to February and June to August, about four to five months of fruit in total.
So we don't rely only on selling fruit. We welcome visitors from all over the world, including America, Canada, the UK, Germany, Japan, Australia, China, Russia and Singapore. Many companies send their staff and management.
Guests take a paid farm tour of about 90 minutes. They ride in a four-wheel drive, plant a durian tree, taste durian and learn how to pick a good one. They can pluck mangosteen, rambutan and other fruit too.
We also keep a WhatsApp group of past guests and fans. They buy durians every season, and that has become a reliable income.
The lesson? Plenty of countries grow fruit. No farm anywhere else can sell a visit to mine. And no farm in Brazil can sell a visit to yours.
Frequently Asked Questions
Why are Brazil's farmers pessimistic about 2027?
In a survey of 323 farmers on October 27, 2026, 84% expected borrowing costs to rise further and 83% planned no increase in investment. A weaker real also pushes up the cost of dollar-linked inputs like fertilizer.
Will Brazil's record soybean crop lower US soybean prices in 2027?
Nobody can promise that. USDA forecasts a 2026/27 US season-average price of $12.10 a bushel, but futures have swung either side of $12 this month, and analysts point to strong competition from South America. Brazil's final crop still depends on the weather.
Can US, Canadian or UK farmers win a price war with Brazil?
On commodity export prices, it is very hard. For 2025/26, S&P Global analysts estimated Brazil would supply about 59% of world soybean exports, against about 23% for the US. The better move is to add income Brazil can't compete for, like farm tours, pick-your-own, farm stands, classes and events.
How much do farms earn from agritourism?
US farms earned $1.26 billion from agritourism in 2022, according to USDA, and a University of Vermont expert told Reuters many add $25,000 to $100,000 a year. In England, diversified farms averaged £31,100 from those activities in 2024/25, mostly from letting buildings. Results vary widely.
Do I need a loan to start agritourism?
Usually not for a first test. Start with one offer that uses what you already have, sell a few paid sessions, and borrow only once you have proof of demand and a written plan.
Find Out If Your Farm Is Ready
The free Farm Readiness Quiz shows how ready your farm is for paying visitors and which areas to work on first.
Then grab the free ebook "150 Ways to Unlock Hidden Wealth From Your Farm." It puts 150 ways to earn more from the land and equipment you already own in one place. Each idea shows how hard it is, how you might price it and what it could earn, so you stop relying only on unpredictable harvests.
P.S. Remember those farmers in Pará, every one of them expecting a worse 2027? They can't control the price of a bushel. Neither can you. But you can decide what a visit to your farm is worth, and no one in Brazil can sell it for you.
Written by Stephen Loke of AgritourismSuccess.com, whose farm is featured in Bloomberg News and Asahi Shimbun. This article is general information, not financial, legal or insurance advice.
Sources
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"Conab Vê Safras Recordes de Soja e Milho em 2026/27," Reuters via Forbes Brasil, October 15, 2026. https://forbes.com.br/forbes-agro/2026/10/conab-ve-safras-recordes-de-soja-e-milho-em-2026-27/
"Export Demand Keeps Soybean Prices Firm Despite Bigger Crop" (July 2026 WASDE), American Soybean Association, July 10, 2026. https://soygrowers.com/news-releases/export-demand-keeps-soybean-prices-firm-despite-bigger-crop/
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Oil Crops Outlook: October 2026 (OCS-26j), USDA Economic Research Service, October 14, 2026. https://www.ers.usda.gov/media/29748/ocs-26j.pdf
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"Current FSA Loan Interest Rates" (effective November 1, 2026), USDA Farm Service Agency, accessed November 11, 2026. https://fsa.usda.gov/tools/informational/rates/current-fsa-loan-interest-rates
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